Magazine

The corona virus arrived in Turkey late. The first case of infection was registered here on 19 March. But soon it spread to every corner of Turkey. Within a month, the corona virus had spread to all 81 provinces of Turkey.

Turkey was the fastest spreading corona infection in the world. Things were worse than China and Britain. There were apprehensions that there would be deaths on large scales and Turkey would also leave Italy behind. At that time Italy was the most affected country.

Three months have passed, but this is not so, even when Turkey has not implemented a complete lockdown.

Turkey has officially confirmed 4397 deaths from corona infection. Claims are being made that the actual number may be up to two times as only those in Turkey have been included in the death toll whose test reports were positive.

But if compared to other countries, this number is less for this country with a population of eight and a half crore.

Experts warn that it is difficult to arrive at a conclusion about the corona infection or to compare the figures of the two countries, even when deaths continue in many countries.

But according to Dr. Jeremy Rossman, a lecturer in virology at the University of Kent, "Turkey has avoided waste."

He told the BBC, "Turkey is among the countries that responded very quickly. Especially in terms of testing, identifying, isolating and preventing movement. Turkey is among the few countries that have managed to effectively reduce the virus's pace.

As the speed of the virus was increasing, the authorities imposed various restrictions on everyday life. There was a ban on going to the coffee house, shopping stopped, mass prayers were stopped in mosques.

People above sixty-five years of age and below twenty years of age were completely locked up in lockdown. Curfews were imposed over the weekend and main cities were sealed.

Istanbul was the epicenter of the epidemic in Turkey. The city lost its pace, as if a heart stopped beating.

Now restrictions are gradually being relaxed, but Dr. Mele Noor Aslan still remains vigilant. She is the director of health services in Fatih district. It is a congested area in the center of Istanbul. The energetic and talkative Dr. Aslan is leading the contact tracing campaign. There are six thousand teams of contact tracing expeditions across Turkey.

She says it feels like we are on the battlefield. People on my team forget to go home, even after eight hours they keep working. They do not care to go home because they know that they are performing their duty.

Dr. Mele Noor Aslan says that she started tracking the virus from the very first day of March 11, her experience of tracking the measles disease.

She says, "Our plan was ready." We just took out our files from the cupboard and we went to work. ''

We joined two doctors in the narrow streets of Fatih. These doctors, wearing PPE kits, were using an app. They went to a flat in an apartment where two young women were in Quarantine. Her friend is Covid positive.

In the corridor of the apartment, both women were tested for Covid, they would receive the report within twenty-four hours. He started showing mild symptoms a day earlier. 29-year-old Mazali Demir Alpa is thankful that she has received a quick response.

She says, "We hear news from abroad. Initially when we came to know about the virus, we were very scared but Turkey worked faster than we thought. It worked much faster than Europe or America." "
Turkey used hydroxychloroquine

Dr. Irshad Sheikh, the acting head of the World Health Organization in Turkey, says that Turkey has many lessons for the world about public health.

He told the BBC, "Initially we were worried. Up to three and a half thousand new cases were coming in every day. But the testing took a lot of work. And people didn't have to wait five-six days for the results."

He also attributed the success of Turkey to the contact tracing, quarantine and isolation policy of Turkey.

In Turkey, patients were also given hydroxychloroquine. It was highly praised by US President Donald Trump, but international research has rejected the drug.

The World Health Organization has stopped the trial of this drug as a treatment for corona. A research paper published in the medical journal Lancet claimed that this drug increases the risk of cardiac arrest in Covid-19 patients and may lead to more harm than good.

We were allowed to go to hospitals where thousands of people have been given hydroxychloroquine as medicine. Dr. Sehit Ilhan Waranka Hospital, built two years ago, remains the center of the fight against Covid.

The Chief Doctor here, Nurettin Yeeyat, says that it is important to use hydroxychloroquine in the beginning. Dr Yeeet's paintings are on the walls of this new shiny hospital.

She says, "Other countries have started using this medicine lately, especially the US, we use it only in the initial days, we have no hesitation about this medicine. We think it is impressive because we are getting results.''

While visiting the hospital, Dr. Yeeit says that Turkey has tried to stay ahead of the virus. We have initially treated and adopted an aggressive attitude.

In addition to hydroxychloroquine, doctors use drugs, plasma and large amounts of oxygen.

Dr. Yeeyat is proud that the rate of death of Covid in his hospital has been less than one percent. Here beds are empty in intensive care unit ie ICU. They try to keep patients out of here and without ventilators.

We met forty-year-old Hakim Sukuk, who is now returning home after receiving treatment. He is thankful to the doctors.

He says, "Everyone has taken care of me a lot." It felt like I am in my mother's lap.''

The Turkish Medical Association has not yet given a clean chit to the government's response to the epidemic. The association says that there were several shortcomings in the way the government took steps on the epidemic.

These include leaving the boundaries open.

Although the World Health Organization is giving some credit to Turkey. Dr. Sheikh says, "This epidemic is in its early days. We think many more people will be seriously ill. There is something that is going well.''

Turkey also has many things in its fight against the Corona epidemic. For example, the young population and the greater number of ICU beds. But still about a thousand new cases are coming up every day.

Turkey is seen as a story of success in the fight against Corona, but still needs to be cautious as the story is not over yet.

Rating agency Moody's has dropped India's rating. Rating means credit rating which can also be called credit in easy language.

What is meant by someone's credibility in the market is exactly the same as the country's rating in the international market. This means that it will be difficult to get loan and the pressure to return will be increased for those who have already taken loan. Moody's is the third major rating agency in the world to have downgraded India. Two other agencies Fitch and Standard and Poor had already dropped this rating.

Moody's rating drop means that bonds issued by the Indian government to raise debt in foreign markets or domestic markets will now be considered less reliable. This rating has reached the lowest level in the last twenty two years. Earlier in 1998, the rating was dropped, and it reached the same level. When the US imposed economic sanctions on India after India's nuclear tests.

The price is so low that Moody's has dropped the rating to Baa3, which can be called the lowest rung of the investment grade. This means that long-term bonds issued by the Government of India will still be considered worth investing, just as the risk is increased.

Even in November last year, there was a fear that Moody's might drop the rating, but then it retained the rating a notch above that at Baa2. However, at that time he changed his perspective on India. That is, he was expecting a problem. He changed his outlook on India to negative from stable.

Then the analysts said that there is not much worry because the economy will pick up and Moody's mood will also improve rather than deteriorate. But now this expectation is proving to be far-fetched. And the matter of concern is that even after dropping the rating, Moody's has kept its outlook negative. This simply means that he is afraid of worsening the situation from here.

It is also important to take a look at the reasons that Moody's has cited for dropping ratings. According to him, the work of implementing economic reforms in the country since 2017 has been very slow. For a long time, the pace of growth in economic growth ie GDP growth is looking weak. The condition of the treasury of the governments is deteriorating, the condition of both the central and state governments. And there is increasing stress or tension in India's financial sector. Stress here means the risk of debt not being returned or imposed or returned.

And the outlook worsening means that the agency is seeing a number of threats linked together in India's economy and financial structure, due to which the Government of India's financial situation may be weakened even more than what the agency is currently anticipating.

And the most dangerous or worrisome thing is that the economic crisis arising out of Corona is not at all the reason for this downgrade of Moody's. He says that this epidemic has only magnified the dangers which were already flourishing in the Indian economy. Seeing these dangers, Moody's changed its outlook last year.

It should be remembered here that two years before that in November 2017, Moody's had raised India's credit rating. At that time, he hoped that some important economic reforms would be implemented in India, which would gradually strengthen the economic condition of the country. But now he complains that since that time the pace of reforms has also been slow and whatever has happened does not show much effect.

Now it is important to understand what is the harm of falling rating and its effect? This is also added when deciding ratings.

The Government of India and the State Governments borrow from many international agencies. Moody's says that even before the Corona crisis, the debt of governments was seventy-two percent of the country's GDP, and now in the changed situation i.e. after the Corona crisis, when governments are needing more money for expenditure, it is estimated that This burden can increase to 84% of GDP.

You should calculate your budget. When you go to take a loan from a bank for a house or a car, the bank officer says that the EMI of all your debts should not exceed forty percent of your earnings in total. If you want to take more loan than this, then you get a private bank or an NBFC who gives you a loan at a higher rate than the market rate. There are also some private financiers who give personal loans to the people of trouble, who charge interest from three to four times and the takers get stuck in bigger trouble than before.

Similarly, when a country issues a bond or wants to borrow directly after a rating falls, it has to pay a higher interest because it is considered a risky task to lend it. As the credit rating of the country falls, the maximum rating of all the companies of the country becomes the same. According to any rating agency, the rating of any private or government company cannot be above the sovereign rating of that country. That is, it becomes difficult and expensive for private companies to raise debt. Those whose bonds or debentures are already in the market, their prices fall and the pressure on them to return the money increases.

Now where India's rating has reached, it is at the bottom of the investment grade. That is, international financial institutions can invest in it right now. But if this rating falls below this, many of the big financial institutions around the world will be forced to immediately withdraw the money of the government of India or the bonds of Indian companies, or at a paltry price. Sell ​​in the market. This is because it is clear to these fund managers that they will not invest in any instrument below the investment grade.

After this some funds are invested, but they are just like money lenders. In this situation, countries get trapped in debt. That is why it is a matter of great concern to drop this rating.

However, there is another aspect of the coin. At this time, if the government started curbing spending in the concern of rating, then it will be very difficult to get the economy back on track. That means a well on one side and a ditch on the other side. But many experts are giving the opinion that the government should leave the worry of ratings for some time and revive the economy with full vigor and once the economy runs, it will not take much time to improve the rating.

Moody's also predicts that India's economy will show a strong boom next year after a fall of nearly four per cent in this financial year. Still, he is afraid that there will be trouble for many years ahead, that is why his outlook is weak. Now if the government does something that the picture is reversed, then this attitude will change automatically.

Researchers on climate change have been warning for a long time that by 2070, the temperature of the earth will rise so much that it will not be possible to live here.

But a study published in the journal Science Advances suggests that in many places such incidents are being reported which were warned till now.

The authors of this study say that the dangerous conditions in which heat and humidity come together are seen to occur all over the world.

However, these conditions only last for a few hours but the number and severity of their occurrence is increasing.

These researchers have analyzed the hourly data of 7877 different stations giving weather information between 1980 and 2019.

It has been revealed in this analysis that in some sub-tropical coastal areas, the frequency of extreme heat and humid mixed weather has doubled.

In every such event there is heat and humidity which can prove to be dangerous for a long time.

Such incidents continue to occur in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, North-Western Australia, the coastal region of the Red Sea and the Gulf of California.

The most dangerous of these figures were recorded 14 times in Dhahran / Daman in Saudi Arabia, Doha in Qatar and Ras Al Khamaia in the United Arab Emirates. More than two million people are living in these cities.

South East Asia, southern China, sub-tropical Africa and the Caribbean region were also affected by this.

Severe conditions were observed in the South East of America. And these conditions have been seen primarily in the East Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida penhandles near the Gulf Coast. The cities of New Orleans and Biloxi have also been badly affected.

Most meteorological centers around the world measure temperature with two thermometers.

The first dry bulb device achieves air temperature.

This is the figure that you see on your phone or TV as the temperature of your city.

Another device is a wet bulb thermometer. This device records humidity in the air.

In this, temperature is taken by wrapping a thermometer in a cloth. Generally, this temperature is lower than the open air temperature.

Extremely humid heat can prove fatal for humans. For this reason, the reading of the weight bulb, which is called 'Feels Like', is very important.

The normal temperature of our body is 37 ° C. And our body temperature is usually 35 degrees Celsius. This different temperature helps us keep our body cool by sweating.

After sweating from the body, it evaporates and takes away heat with it.

This process works well in deserts. But in humid places this process does not work properly. Because there is so much moisture in the air that it cannot lift sweat in the process as steam.

In such a situation, if the humidity rises and the wet bulb raises the temperature to 35 ° C or above, then the process of evaporation of sweat will slow down which will affect our ability to withstand heat.

In some serious cases, it may also happen that this process stops completely. In such a situation, a person will have to go to an air-conditioned room because the internal temperature of the body will go beyond this heat tolerance limit, after which the body parts will stop functioning.

In such a situation, even very fit people will die in about six hours.

Until now it was believed that the wet bulb temperature on Earth crossed 31 ° C in rare conditions.

But in 2015, meteorologists in Iran's Port City, Bandar Abbas, saw weight bulb temperatures go up to 35 degrees Celsius.

At that time the air temperature was 43 degrees Celsius. But after this new study, it has been found that in one to two hours in the Persian Gulf cities, the weight bulb temperature went up to 35 degrees Celsius more than a dozen times.

Colin Raymond, a researcher at the Lemont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University and the lead author in this study, says, "The humid summer in the Persian Gulf is mainly due to moisture. But for such conditions to arise, the temperature must also be above average. The figures we are studying are still quite rare. But after 2000, many times have come to the fore.''

All the studies that have been done so far on climate change have failed to record such serious incidents. This study explains this because researchers generally look at the average of heat and humidity over large areas and long intervals. But Colin Raymond and his colleagues tracked hourly data coming to meteorological centers around the world. Due to this, he came to know about those incidents, due to which, in a very short time, a small space is being affected.

Colin says, "Our study completely agrees with previous studies that a 35 degree Celsius wet bulb temperature up to 2100 would be a normal thing at the level of a metropolitan area." We have only added to this that these incidents have started happening in a short time in small places. In such a situation, high resolution data is very important.

Such incidents are mostly occurring in coastal areas, creeks and straits where seawater blowing through steam creates the possibility of mixing in hot air.

Studies show that in most of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, there will be a temperature till 2100 in which it can survive. It is a confluence of extreme sea level temperatures and continental heat that can produce humid heat.

"High resolution data can help us understand which places may have the greatest impact on people and how we can warn people if such a situation is going to happen," says Coleen. This can help them to be air-conditioned, not working outside the home and ready to take long-term steps. ''

This study expresses concern about economically vulnerable areas where temperatures are rising rapidly. Because these people will feel inability to protect against heat.

Another writer and scientist of the same study, Radley Horton, says, "People in poor countries who are in danger, they cannot use electricity, forget the air condition. Most people depend on farming for their livelihood. These facts will make some areas unfit to live. ''

If carbon emissions are not reduced, then such incidents are bound to increase.

Steven Sherwood, climatologist at the University of New South Wales, Australia, says, "These estimates suggest that some areas of the Earth will soon get so much heat that it will not be possible to live there." Earlier it was believed that we have a lot of safety of margin ie the risk is far away.''

US President Donald Trump said that he is taking the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine to avoid Covid 19 disease.

Science journal 'Lancet' has found in its study that where the hydroxychloroquine drug is being given in the treatment of infected people with the corona virus, there is a high risk of death.

The study has found that the corona infected are not benefiting from this malaria medicine. This medicine is made on a large scale in India. India banned the export of this medicine in March, but US President Trump wanted India to lift these restrictions and supply to the US. India had partially lifted the ban after Trump said.

Trump said this week that he was taking this medicine, while health officials warned that it could aggravate the problem of heart disease.

Trump has been encouraging the use of this medicine, ignoring medical studies.

Hydroxychloroquine is safe for malaria patients and is also beneficial in some cases of lupus or arthritis.

But no clinical trial has recommended the use of this medicine for corona infections.

The Lancet study included 96,000 patients infected with the corona virus.

Of these, 15,000 people were given hydroxychloroquine or similar chloroquine. It is either given with an antibiotic or only this.

This study shows that chloroquine-eating patients died more in hospital than other covid patients and also due to heart disease.

Among those given hydroxychloroquine, the mortality rate was 18%, those who took chloroquine had a mortality rate of 16.4% and those who were not given these medicines had a mortality rate of nine percent.

Those treated with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with an antibiotic had higher mortality.

Researchers have said that taking hydroxychloroquine out of clinical trials is dangerous.

Trump had said that he had come negative in the Covid test because he was taking hydroxychloroquine and had positive benefits.

Trials are ongoing as to whether hydroxychloroquine is effective in covid 19.

More than 40,000 health workers from Europe, Asia, Africa and South America will be given hydroxychloroquine supplements in this trial.

When asked about the Lancet study, co-ordinator Dr. Deborah Berks of the 'White House Corona Virus Task Force' said the government agency was concerned with the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat or prevent Covid-19's disease. The US Food and Drug Administration's stance has been very clear.

Dr. Marcos Espinal, director of the Pan-American Health Organization, an organization associated with the World Health Organization, has emphasized that no clinical trial recommends the use of hydroxychloroquine in the name of treating the corona virus.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that Israel is a tumor that has to be removed.

At the same time, he has also supported sending weapons from Iran to Palestine. On the other hand, the US, European Union and Israel have strongly criticized Iran's statement.

Opposition to Israel is a major issue in Shia-dominated Iran. Palestinian and Lebanese armed groups opposing peace with Israel have received Iran's support. Iran has not recognized Israel till date.

According to the news agency Reuters, Ayatollah Ali Khamani said, "The rule of the Jews in the area is like a tumor that has become fatal and canker." Of course it will be destroyed one day. ''

Khamenei said this in an online Khutba on the last day of Ramadan.

The US, the European Union and Israel have reacted strongly to Iran's remarks.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu warned Iran, "The forces threatening to destroy Israel will have the same result."

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rejected Khamenei's statement, calling it hateful and anti-Semitic remarks.

He said that these things do not match the tradition of tolerance of common people of Iran.

European Union foreign policy chief Joseph Borel said that Khamenei's remarks are completely unacceptable and a cause for concern.

However, Palestinian armed groups such as 'Hamas' and 'Islamic Jihad' operating in Gaza have been praising the money and arms support from Iran.

But before Friday, Khamani had never publicly confessed that Iran supplies arms to these armed groups.

Khamnai said, "Iran realizes that Palestinian fighters have only one problem and that there is a shortage of arms." With the will and help of Allah, we planned and changed the balance of power in Palestine and the Gaza Strip can stand against the attacks of Jewish enemies and defeat them. ''

Israel's Defense Minister Benny Gantz said, "Israel has many big challenges." Khamenei's statement makes it perfectly clear. ''

Benny Gantz wrote on Facebook, "I cannot advise anyone to take our test ... We are ready to face any kind of danger."

Iran's supreme religious leader said much more in his address on Friday besides making a statement against Israel.

According to the news agency AFP, Khamenei said on this occasion, "Freedom of Palestine is our Islamic responsibility. The aim of this struggle is the independence of the entire Palestinian territory and the Palestinians have to return their country. America wants the presence of Jewish government in this area to be made normal. The pro-American governments of some Arab countries are preparing the situation for this. ''

Every year Iran celebrates 'Quds (Jerusalem) Day' on the last day of Ramadan to support the issue of Palestine. This tradition has continued in Iran since the 1979 revolution.

This is the first time in the last 30 years when Khamneni, as the Supreme Leader of Iran, was addressing this occasion. However, he has been consistently saying that the issue of Palestine is the biggest problem of the Muslim world.

This year, Iran had postponed rallies related to 'Quds Day' due to the Covid-19 epidemic.

US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalme Khalilzad has said in an interview to the Indian daily English newspaper 'The Hindu' that India should talk directly with the Taliban.

This is probably the first time that a US official has asked India to negotiate directly with the Taliban. Among Asian countries, India is the only country which does not have formal relations with the Taliban.

Although China, Iran and Russia also refused to accept their government during the Taliban era in Afghanistan, now all three countries are in touch with the Taliban. Russia also hosted an international conference in November 2018 in connection with the Afghanistan peace process.

India has invested billions of rupees in Afghanistan in the last 20 years and Afghanistan has also made every effort to maintain its friendship with India in every possible way.

According to the Indian embassy in Kabul, so far India has invested more than two billion US dollars in Afghanistan.

The friendship between New Delhi and Afghanistan also became stronger because both were accusing their neighboring country of Pakistan for helping those fighting the Taliban and Kashmir.

According to Afghan affairs analysts, there are two major reasons why India has not kept contact with the Taliban till now. The first is the allegation of a close relationship with Pakistan or support of the Taliban, which opposed the government of Afghanistan until a few years ago, and the support of the Taliban fighting against India in Kashmir.

With the end of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001, India again sent its diplomatic staff to Afghanistan after five years.

Former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhyay was one of the Ambassadors who reopened the Indian Mission in Afghanistan.

Gautam Mukhopadhyay told the BBC that this is a friendly message for India indicating that the Taliban may soon enter Afghanistan's politics and India should also come on-board.

American author Barnett R. Ruben, who has written three books on Afghanistan, says that Khalilzad has not said that India should treat the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan, but rather that the way other countries have contact with the Taliban and other factions . Similarly, India also kept in touch with the Taliban and asked them to give up arms and enter active politics.

But the question arises whether the Taliban will lay down arms to enter active politics? It would not only be hasty to say so but it would be a childish thing. Ruben may have forgotten or ignored the history of the Taliban or is making statements that affect him. Ruben will recall that the US could not defeat the Taliban in its military operations in the last 20 years, and the US was forced to make compromises with the Taliban, kneeling before the Taliban. The Taliban is a powerful military force group, arms are its strength. The Taliban have captured more than half of Afghanistan by force of arms, and many provinces are ruled by the Taliban. Why would the Taliban lay down arms in such a situation? The Taliban will retain their military force even after entering active politics.

According to Ruben, "Now that the Taliban have entered into the politics of Afghanistan, it will be good for India that it will make relations with them in the same way as it keeps with the Jamaat Islami, General Dostam or the post-apartheid groups. ''

According to Ruben, India's policy for the Taliban has already changed. He says that this was indicated when India sent two former ambassadors to the international conference to be held in Moscow in November 2018.

However, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs had said at the time that these two ambassadors are attending 'informally' in this conference.

Suhail Shaheen, a spokesman for the Afghanistan Taliban's political office in Doha, told the BBC that the Taliban's political office has been created so that they can share their policy with the countries of the world.

He says, "Whoever contacts us, we will inform them about our present and future policy."

According to Sami Yusufzai, working as a journalist in Afghanistan, during the period of Taliban, more Kashmiri and Punjabi 'Mujahideen' had entered into Afghanistan and at that time India's concern was justified.

According to him "Now the Taliban can solve their problems with India easily".

According to former Indian Ambassador Gautam Mukhopadhyay, India has not formally rejected the Taliban till date, it is another matter that he has not been in touch with them.

Gautam says that before talks with India, the Taliban should talk to the Afghan government and they should agree. He says, "I am not talking as a representative of the Government of India but would say that the Taliban should accept and talk to the Government of Afghanistan before India."

The question arises that when the Taliban does not accept the government of Afghanistan, why will it talk to India? The Taliban spokesman has already said that whoever contacts us, we will inform them about our current and future policy. That is, the Taliban themselves will not talk to anyone.

What will happen to the Government of Afghanistan now?

The question is that when many countries including USA, Germany, Russia, Iran, China and Pakistan have direct or indirect relations with the Taliban, why should the Afghan government worry if Afghanistan's close friend India has relations with the Taliban Should be?

According to Shaida Mohammad Abdali, former Ambassador of Afghanistan to India, India is a close and true friend of Afghanistan in this region, which, even if it belongs to the Taliban, will see the benefits of the government of Afghanistan more than its benefits, unlike other countries.

Could it be that India will put Afghanistan's interest above its own interest? What would happen if the Taliban formed a government in Afghanistan?

According to Abdali, "Although it is not clear yet what conditions India agrees to talk to the Taliban, but looking at the friendship between India and Afghanistan, I can say that even if they talk, the information of the Government of Afghanistan Will do with.''

Then the question arises that why the Taliban who do not talk to the Afghan government will talk to India? That too on India's terms!

Abdali understands that from the very beginning, it has been the effort of the Afghan government that regional countries should also play their part in the Afghan peace process and according to them, if a friend like India belongs to the Taliban, then the Afghan government will not have any concern.

Can Pakistan be worried?

On the one hand, if India has invested more than two billion dollars in Afghanistan, on the other hand the former jihadi leaders of Pakistan have good and friendly relations with the Taliban and other country. Some Pakistani analysts believe that the former Mujahideen and the Taliban can defend Pakistan's gains in Afghanistan as far as possible.

Since 2001, as India and Afghanistan's historical relations once again grew, Pakistan's concern about it also increased. Pakistan is worried about why India is investing billions in Afghanistan?

Pakistan believes that the Government of Afghanistan should be closer to Pakistan than India. However, Afghanistan believes that as an independent and self-reliant country, Pakistan has no right to interfere with their relations with any other countries.

Pakistan has alleged that along with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the Baloch protesters are also using Afghanistan's land against Pakistan. On the other hand, the acceptance of India among the people of Afghanistan is high and even today Pakistan's intelligence agency is blamed for most incidents of extremism.

According to Ruben, if Pakistan believes that the Taliban in Afghanistan will defend the benefits of Pakistan, then it will be a big mistake for Pakistan.

According to him, due to compulsion, the Taliban took refuge in Pakistan, now as they get back into the mainstream of Afghan politics, their dependence on Pakistan will also decrease.

It is difficult to fully agree with Ruben's talk. Even today, the Taliban control and direct control over half of Afghanistan's territory. One more thing, Pakistan has played an important role in getting the US-Taliban agreement. In such a situation, why would the Taliban leave their old ally Pakistan when the Taliban entered active politics? The Taliban has ruled Afghanistan before. Did the Taliban leave Pakistan then? Even then, there were good relations between the Taliban and Pakistan and still exists.

But why should India talk to the Taliban at the behest of America? If America compromises with the Taliban, then why should India talk to the Taliban? Should India dance at the behest of America? The corona virus has caused havoc all over the world. Powerful countries like America, Russia and China have also been destroyed by this. After the destruction of the corona virus, the world will change a lot. Every country will think only of its own interest. In such a situation, India should also think only about its own interest.

Rahul Gandhi: In India, you have to think about the problem of caste, because the dominant castes here use the money in their own way.

Dr. Banerjee: Maybe, but on the other hand, you can also stop it. In such a situation, I will keep some extra money so that it reaches the eligible people of the village. Exactly as you are saying in the case of PDS. That is, make it a principle. This way it can be avoided.

But you are talking about more than reaching money. Some people have Jan Dhan accounts and some do not. Some people are named in MNREGA, this is another way to reach people. Some have Ujjwala, some do not. Once you look at the list and you will know that millions of people are deprived of them, then how to benefit them? Yes, one thing is clear that the local administration should have money that can identify and benefit people. I agree with you that dominant castes can take advantage of this. We had similar fears in Indonesia, but it was not very big. I think we should try, knowing that some of it will be wrong. If you do not try, then there will be a big problem.

Rahul Gandhi: That is, move ahead courageously, take the risk because we are in a very bad position.

Dr. Banerjee: When you are in trouble, you should work with courage.

Rahul Gandhi: What do you think, if this disease is finished in 6 months from now, what will happen on the poverty front? It will have bad effects, people will go bankrupt. How do we deal with this medium term?

Dr. Banerjee: See what we are talking about. There is the issue of lack of demand. There are two concerns, first, how to avoid the chain of bankruptcy, debt forgiveness can be one way, as you said. The second is the reduction of demand, and the wheel of the Indian economy can be rotated by paying money in the hands of the people. America is doing so on a large scale. There is a Republican government run by some financiers. If we want, we can do it too. There is no government of liberal-minded socialists, but there are people who have been working in the financial sector. But they decided that to save the economy, people would have to pay money. I think we should learn from this.

Rahul Gandhi: This creates the possibility of some degree of change in the balance of power in the world, it is also clear. What do you think about it?

Dr. Banerjee: I care more about countries like Italy and France. Especially Italy, which suffered disastrous consequences and is partly a result of the fact that Italy did not have a qualified regime for many years. As a result, healthcare was absolutely paralyzed. America has adopted a nationalist view that is not right for the world. The rise of China is a threat to him and if America starts reacting to it then it will pose a risk of instability. This is the most worrying thing.

Rahul Gandhi: That is, strong leaders can deal with this virus. And it is being explained that only one man can beat this virus.

Dr. Banerjee: It would be fatal. The United States and Brazil are two countries that are badly in disarray. There are two purportedly strong leaders here, and they show that they know everything, but only laugh at what they say every day. If anyone has faith in the principle of a strong leader, they should think about it.

Rahul Gandhi: Thank you very much. Whenever you are in India, please drink tea together. Hello everyone at home.

Dr. Banerjee: You too, and take care of yourself.

Rahul Gandhi: I think you have to find alternatives. As much as possible decentralization, I think they can be dealt with locally, which is a good thing. The thinking should be that things which can be managed at the district level or at the state level should be separated. Yes, there are many things that no district collector can decide, such as airlines or railways etc. So I believe that major decisions should be at the national level, but decisions on local issues, such as lockdown, should be left to the discretion of the state government. The choice of the states should matter and the states should decide what they can and cannot do. And when the risk falls on the states, they will be able to handle it better. But I think the current government has a different view. They want to keep things under their control. They look at things and centralize it. These are two views. I don't think any of it is wrong or right. I am in favor of decentralization.

Dr. Banerjee: What do I think I would do? On the basis of whatever money I have, I would announce some good schemes that this money would reach the poor and then, seeing the effect of it, I would improve it further. I think there are many good NGOs in every state who can help in this. As you said, the District Magistrate also has good ideas at times. We should take advantage of all this.

Rahul Gandhi: Have you seen some experiences in other countries that can benefit?

Dr. Banerjee: Let me tell you what Indonesia is doing right now? Indonesia is going to give money to the people and all this is happening as a decision-making process at the community level. That is, the community is deciding who is needy? And then money is being transferred to him. We have worked with the Government of Indonesia and saw that this is a far more accurate process than a centralized process. With this you decide without thinking of any special interest. Here at the local level only people are deciding what is right? I think this is an experience from which we can learn. He told the community that look is money, and it has to be passed on to those who are in need. This is a good policy in an emergency because the community has that information and information many times, then you do not have it in a centralized system.

Rahul Gandhi: In India, you have to think about the problem of caste, because the dominant castes here use the money in their own way.

Dr. Banerjee: Maybe, but on the other hand, you can also stop it. In such a situation, I will keep some extra money so that it reaches the eligible people of the village. Exactly as you are saying in the case of PDS. That is, make it a principle. This way it can be avoided.

But you are talking about more than reaching money. Some people have Jan Dhan accounts and some do not. Some people are named in MNREGA, this is another way to reach people. Some have Ujjwala, some do not. Once you look at the list and you will know that millions of people are deprived of them, then how to benefit them? Yes, one thing is clear that the local administration should have money that can identify and benefit people. I agree with you that dominant castes can take advantage of this. We had similar fears in Indonesia, but it was not very big. I think we should try, knowing that some of it will be wrong. If you do not try, then there will be a big problem.

Rahul Gandhi: That is, move ahead courageously, take the risk because we are in a very bad position.

Dr. Banerjee: When you are in trouble, you should work with courage.

Rahul Gandhi: That is, the sooner you come out of the lockdown, the better. A strategy will be required for this, some economic activities will have to be started for this. Otherwise money will prove to be useless.

Dr. Banerjee: How soon to get out of lockdown depends on the disease. If a lot of people are getting sick, how will the lockdown end? You are right that we have to control the pace of disease and keep an eye on it.

Rahul Gandhi: The other important thing in relation to India is the issue of food, and its scale. There are uncountable people who do not have ration cards. One argument is that whatever is full in the godowns should be given to the people, because it is the harvest season and they will be replenished by the new crop. So this needs to be proceeded with aggression.

Dr. Banerjee: Actually I wrote a paper together with Raghuram Rajan and Amartya Sen. The same thing was said in this, whoever needs it should be given a temporary ration card. Actually, the second ration card should be set aside, only the temporary ration card should be recognized. Whoever needs it gets it. Initially, renew for three months and after that if needed, and ration should be given on the basis of this. Give the ration card to anyone who comes to ask and make it the basis of benefit transfer. I think we have enough reserves, and we can run this plan for a long time. If the rabi crop has been good, then we have a lot of grains (wheat, rice). At least we can give wheat and rice. I do not know if we have sufficient quantity of lentils or not. But I think the government should also promise lentils. There should also be a system of edible oil. But yes for this we should issue temporary ration card to everyone.

Rahul Gandhi: What else should the government do in the package? We talked about small and medium industries, we talked about migrant laborers, we talked about food. Apart from this, what can be more that you think the government should do?

Dr. Banerjee: The last thing will be that we should send money to those who need machinery etc. We cannot deliver cash to people. People who have Jan Dhan accounts will get money. But many people do not have accounts. Especially migrant laborers do not have this. We have to think of a large section of the population who do not have access to all of this. In such a situation, the right step would be to give money to the state governments which reach the people through their schemes, help of NGOs can be taken in this. I think we will have to keep some money in the item whether it reaches the wrong people or goes around. But if the money is kept in hand, that is, we do not want to do anything, then there will be a big mess.

Rahul Gandhi: There is also the issue of balance between centralization and decentralization. Every state has its own problems and strengths. Kerala is handling the situation in a completely different way. Uttar Pradesh has a completely different approach. But the central government has a special role to play. But I feel some tension about both these thoughts.

Dr. Banerjee: You are absolutely right that there is tension and only the state governments cannot handle the issue of migrant laborers. It is a little strange that this front is being seen as being so bilateral. I think this is a problem. Here you do not want to decentralize because you want to share information. If this part of the population is infected, you would not want to roam around the country. I think the place where people are being boarded by the train should be tested. This is a central question and the answer lies only with the central government. For instance, tell the Uttar Pradesh government clearly that you cannot bring your workers here. That is, if the laborers are in Mumbai, then it is the problem of the Maharashtra government or the municipality of Mumbai city, and the central government cannot solve it. I think you are right. But what is your opinion on this at the moment? There seems to be no solution to this problem. But in the long run, the institutions are strong. But at the moment this is not happening which we can do.

Rahul Gandhi: I think you have to find alternatives. As much as possible decentralization, I think they can be dealt with locally, which is a good thing. The thinking should be that things which can be managed at the district level or at the state level should be separated. Yes, there are many things that no district collector can decide, such as airlines or railways etc. So I believe that major decisions should be at the national level, but decisions on local issues, such as lockdown, should be left to the discretion of the state government. The choice of the states should be important and the states should decide what they can and cannot do and when the risk falls on the states, they will be able to handle it better. But I think the current government has a different view. They want to keep things under their control. They look at things and centralize it. These are two views. I don't think any of it is wrong or right. I am in favor of decentralization. 

Dr. Banerjee: That is why people like us say that incentive packages should be given. This is what America is doing, this is what Japan and Europe are doing. We have not decided anything yet. We are still only talking about 1% of GDP. The US has given a package equivalent to 10% of GDP. I think we can do it easily for the MSME sector, and it would be right that we can stop debt collection for some time. We can do more than this. We can also say that the repayment of debt for this quarter has been canceled and the government will pay it. So you can do more than this. Instead of just repaying the loan back and forth, it would be right to forgive it. But even further it is not clear whether it is right to target only MSMEs? The need is to increase demand. People should have money in their hands so that they can shop, go to stores, buy consumer goods. MSMEs have many products that people buy, but they are not buying. If they have money and you promise to give money then it is possible. Money is not there. If you are in the red zone, or wherever the lockdown is being removed, then you can spend if you have 10,000 rupees in your account. Spending is the easiest way to revive the economy. Because this will bring money in the hands of MSMEs, they will also spend, and thus a chain will be formed.

Rahul Gandhi: That is, we are talking about NYAY scheme in a way i.e. direct cash transfer that reaches people directly.

Dr. Banerjee: Absolutely. This should be debated only for the poor. I am saying a big thing ... I believe that targeting will be the most important. You are setting a goal in the middle of a mess. There will also be people whose shop is closed for 6 weeks and has become poor. I do not know how such people will be identified. I would say that the lower 60 per cent of the population should be given money as a target, nothing bad will happen. We will give them money, they need, they will spend, it will have an effective effect. I want some more aggression in this than you, I want money to be given to people even beyond the poor.

Rahul Gandhi: So you are talking about mass grouping of people directly. That is, demand should increase as quickly as possible.

Dr. Banerjee: Absolutely. This is what I am saying. Before the crisis, I am saying that the problem of demand is before us. And now it has become a bigger problem because it is extraordinary. I do not have money, I will not buy because my shop is closed. And my shop is closed, so I will not buy anything from you.

Rahul Gandhi: I think you are saying that whatever needs to be done, it needs to be done fast. The sooner you do it, the more effective it will be. That is, what is going on every second is increasing the loss.

Dr. Banerjee: You are absolutely right. I don't want to see everyone's qualifications before we help whether they are eligible or not. I believe that we will create a mismatch chain of supply and demand, because we gave the money but the retail sector is closed due to being in the red zone. So we have to think better that when you go out for shopping, then only you will get money and not in advance. Or the government should promise that you will not be disturbed, you will get money and there will be no chance of dying of starvation, so that you can have some savings. If people are assured that there will be money in their hands for two months or as long as there is a lockdown, then they will not bother and will want to spend. Some of these will have their own savings. Therefore, it is also not right to hurry, because there is no supply. Even if you give money, it will be useless, inflation will increase separately. With this request, yes a quick decision has to be made.

Rahul Gandhi: That is, the sooner you come out of the lockdown, the better. A strategy will be required for this, some economic activities will have to be started for this. Otherwise money will prove to be useless.

Dr. Banerjee: How soon to get out of lockdown depends on the disease. If a lot of people are getting sick, how will the lockdown end? You are right that we have to control the pace of disease and keep an eye on it.